Playing the Matchups!

By Jeff Lucero
Follow Jeff on Twitter: prosb4hos

Playing the Matchups – Decision Maker

Here’s a list of defenses and what they have done through 3 weeks this season. I have listed their points allowed in each game as well as their highest and lowest amount of yards allowed. Obviously, a big part of Fantasy Football is playing the matchups and this is a list I have compiled to help with that. Some of the “luck” involved in winning is directly related to how schedules shape up for players down the stretch. It’s good to take an in-depth look at what you can do to make the best decisions in getting the right players in your lineup. Things can change quickly and certain teams will match up more favorably than other teams. So, although this isn’t an exact science, following tendencies and starting players against the easiest matchups will give your the best chance to score the most points. I will try and update these periodically throughout the season.

Team    Pts Allowed       High Yds       Low Yds

The Best Matchups

1. Browns      34, 27, 34      479       310
2. Bucs          34, 27, 24       462       387
3. Rams         28, 9, 36         446       362
4. Texans       24, 31, 31      462       398
5. Chiefs        38, 13, 34       501       420 (Oak 166)
6. Lions          45, 27, 14      515       265
7. Jaguars     14, 31, 24      397       365
8. Cardinals   20, 17, 31     505       203

This Tier is the worst in the league; you should feel most confident about starting your player when you see these teams on the schedule. All of the above have struggled vs. the run and the pass, and have varying degrees of offensive issues, so all positions have potential to be productive. The Cardinals have the best offense of the bunch as well as the best defense, but they can still be a good matchup because of their prolific offense and turnovers they commit. In ’08 they were amongst the most inconsistent teams in the league before making their playoff run and are off to a very similar start. The Lions are able to keep running games in check from time to time and have an improving offense, but will continue to struggle vs. the pass. The Buccaneers, Rams and Browns are the worst defenses at this point between yards and points allowed. The Texans and Chiefs haven’t been much better, although the Chiefs had one game vs. the Raiders where they held them in check (as noted above), but their typical yards allowed number is going to be closer to 400 than 200 each week. They have QBs who can manage the game and aid the defensive side from time to time. The Jaguars used to be known for their defense but have struggled with youth, injuries and inconsistency. After holding the Colts to a moderate game in Week 1, they have been exposed in the last 2 games.

One Sided Defenses

Team                Pts Allowed       High Yds       Low Yds

9. Bills              25, 20, 27         441               353
10. Raiders      24, 10, 23        409               317
11. Panthers   32, 28, 15         449               267
12. Falcons     7, 20, 26           445               259
13. Seahawks  0, 23, 23          379              247
14. Saints          21, 20, 7         463               231
15. Colts            12, 23, 10       403              228
16. Dolphins    19, 27, 17        356              281
17. Titans        13, 34, 24         420              229

This is a tier of teams who have problems stopping either the pass or the run most games. The Bills kept the Patriots in check for the most part in Week 1, then held Brees to no passing touchdowns in Week 3, but have gave up huge chunks of rushing yardage. The Raiders and Panthers are really hurt by their offensive troubles and can be a particularly good matchup for RBs. The Seahawks also have had troubles vs. the run giving up over 200 yards to Gore in Week 2. The Saints, Titans, Colts and Dolphins primary struggles have been against the pass, but they all have the ability to stop the pass and give up the run instead. The Falcons have a young defense that is will give up the pass or run on a weekly basis, sometimes both.

The Most Uncertain?

Team                  Pts Allowed       High Yds       Low Yds

18. Packers       13, 31, 17            352                   319
19. Cowboys     21, 27, 7              450                   271
20. Eagles         10, 42, 14            421                   169
21. Redskins     17, 7, 19              381                   245
22. Chargers     20, 31, 13            366                   289

The Packers are an uncertain because they have a ton of talent on defense, but they have underachieved so far. It’s a new 3-4 defense that still has some 4-3 players trying to adapt. That being said, running a 3-4 can unexpectedly give teams a problem in the passing game. The Cowboys and Chargers both employ a 3-4 and have some similar characteristics to the Packers, like plenty of talent, although the Chargers are without their Pro Bowl NT for the remainder of the season. The Eagles have a great pass rush and outstanding corners, so they can really shut down the pass in some games. They will struggle vs. the run more than anything, but can also be adversely affected by what their offense is doing. When things start to break down, you will see a game like Brees had vs. them in Week 2. The Redskins are a team who would be aided heavily by a better offense. Their defense keeps them in games and the offense seems to lose them. Sooner or later, this team’s morale is going to tank if they can’t get it together as a team. All of these teams have solid talent and the capability to shut teams down from time to time, but all have their weaknesses that can be exposed.

Bend But Don’t Break?

Team             Pts Allowed        High Yds         Low Yds

23. Bengals  12, 18, 20           373                    302
24. Broncos    7, 6, 3                307                    137
25. 49ers      16, 10, 27            377                    283

This is a tier of teams who will have kept offenses in check, but they won’t typically shut down good teams and players. The Bengals offense is much improved over the last few seasons. They aren’t quite the delightful matchup owners used to love to see on the schedule . The same can be said of Denver and San Francisco. None of these teams were looked at on the schedule as a tough matchup, they should now all be viewed as potential “stud killers”.

In For A Tough Day

Team                    Pts Allowed                High Yds          Low Yds

26. Bears          21, 14, 19                      346                      226
27. Ravens        24, 26, 3                       474                      186
28. Giants         17, 31, 0                        378                       86
29. Vikings         20, 13, 24                    268                      246
30. Steelers      10, 17, 17                     320                      273
31. Patriots       18, 16, 10                     276                      254
32. Jets              7, 9, 17                         299                      183

This last tier is a list of teams you want avoid starting your players against. Even “must start” players can be considered for the bench (good examples are Frank Gore vs. The Vikings in Week 3 and Chris Johnson vs. Steelers in Week 1). Matchups and injured players only compound the difficulty of these matchups. These are defenses who can be “stud killers” and really disrupt all positions from producing. Teams have actually moved the ball on the Ravens a little more this season than last, but this is still a solid defense that can really stifle an offense at any point. Same goes for the Giants and Bears. While both teams have injuries to key players, they get after the QB and can disrupt both the rushing and passing game. The Steelers, Patriots, Vikings and Jets have been the toughest matchup for players this season. It’s going to take a great game for offenses to put up big numbers on these teams.

As always, feel free to tweet me your sits or start questions on Twitter.