PLAYOFFS!!!!!

December football only means one thing, it’s time to start thinking PLAYOFFS! In this segment we look at the Playoff picture as it stands and the schedule each team faces, along with the keys to their success. Let’s get started.

NFC Playoff Picture

Top Seeds:
1. Seed – New Orleans Saints: At 11-0 the Saints are in control of their destiny. The are playing great after a big win on Monday Night Football and it with remaining games against Washington, Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina – the Saints have a real chance to go undefeated with Atlanta and Dallas the only real hurdles. The question is if they rest players heading into the postseason making a prediction tough, but if we have to make a prediction 15-1 sounds about right.

2. Seed – Minnesota Vikings: The Vikes are 10-1 and should easily win the North with the only real challenge coming from the Packers but that is still a stretch. The Pack would have to win out and the Vikes would need to go on a pretty bad losing streak. That won’t happen. With upcoming games against Arizona, Cincinnati, Carolina, Chicago and New York Giants – the Vikings could potentially get to 4 losses if they falter to Arizona and Cincinnati forcing them to win out but at worst we see them as a 13-3 team, at best 15-1 and it should be a close battle for the #1 seed. Either way, the Vikes and Saints will get a week off.

3. Seed – Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have made a surge in the NFC East but this division is far from over. The Eagles are nipping at their heals and the Giants aren’t out of it yet. The Cowboys have remaining games against New York Giants, San Diego, New Orleans, Washington and Philadelphia. At worst they could finish 9-7, at best 12-4. They probably will be somewhere in the middle at 11-5. The Cowboys need to play consistent football and face some teams that could surprise them!

4. Seed – Arizona Cardinals: The Cards lost a heartbreaker against the Titans last week but still have a good hold on the NFC West. With remaining games against Minnesota, San Francisco, Detroit, St. Louis and Green Bay – the Cards are in good shape. At best they finish 11-5 and worst case scenario they end up 9-7. We think they fall somewhere in the middle right around 10-6. The Cards proved in 2008 that if they get hot toward the end of the season they are a tough out in the postseason.

Wildcard leaders – Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers

The Eagles have a tough road to hoe, they only have one opponent left in 2009 with a losing record, the 49ers! The Eagles face Atlanta, New York Giants, San Francisco, Denver & Dallas. At best they could win 4 of 5 and at worst they win 3. The final game against Dallas could be for all the NFC East marbles!

The Packers also have an uphill climb. They have to play Baltimore, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona. At best they win 3 and worse they beat only the Bears and Seahawks. The Pack will probably cross the finish line at 9-7 and hold onto the final seed. This team gives us the least amount of post season confidence in the NFC. Aaron Rogers does have the weapons and the Defense is good enough but the O-Line needs to step it up when facing the top caliber teams.

Still in it – (In the NFC we are looking at teams with 7 losses or better. Teams that finish 9-7 have a chance, those that finish 8-8 probably don’t. While it’s still relatively early and anything can happen, this will be our starting point.)
New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers. The Bears, Hawks and Panthers will need to win out to be playing in January!

AFC Playoff Picture

Top Seeds:
1. Seed – Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are the other 11-0 team in the NFL and are the only team that has already won their Division. The Colts remaining schedule is very doable – Tennessee, Denver, Jacksonville, New York Jets and Buffalo. If they get through Tennessee who is surging and Denver who plays well at home than the Jags are the only real remaining hurdle. Again, the question becomes, do they rest their players? The Colts will also be staying home for a week before the playoffs.

2. Seed – Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are having a marquee year for the franchise after sweeping both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Bengals control their own fate and with a remaining schedule of Detroit, Minnesota, San Diego, Kansas City and the New York Jets they should finish at least 12-4, at worst 11-5. The latter record wins the North as both the Ravens and Steelers have 5 losses already and as we mentioned the Bengals hold the tiebreakers. WHO DEY!

3. Seed – San Diego Chargers: The Bolts are at 8-3 and stand atop the AFC West. They hold a 1 game lead over the Broncos but have a tough 3 game stretch coming up after the Browns. They face Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Washington. At best they finish 12-4 and at worst they end up 10-6. The West should be a close one till the end and much of the Chargers chances rely on their Defense. The O’ is good enough to win ball games but will the D’ hold up?

4. Seed – New England Patriots: The Pats fell to 7-4 against the Saints on Monday Night but still have a firm grip on the East. With remaining games against Miami, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Houston the Pats could easily win out. The only real threat’s are Miami, Houston and possibly Jacksonville but we like their chances. When it’s all said and done the Pats will probably be the 2 or 3 seed with a 12-4 record.

Wildcard leaders – Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Broncos have had a very tough schedule in 2009 and aside from the Colts and Eagles it’s starting to lighten up. They face Kansas City, Indianapolis, Oakland, Philadelphia, Kansas City. At best the Broncos finish 11-5 and at worse they end up 9-7. Both should be good for the postseason but the question is do they win the West? We’ll have to wait and see!

The Jaguars have to start playing consistently or someone else will be more than happy to jump in and move on to the postseason. The Jags face Houston, Miami, Indianapolis, New England and Cleveland. To be honest we will be very surprised if the Jags make the post season, in fact we’d be surprised if they finish with a winning record. However, right now they have a hold of the last wildcard spot and until they don’t they must be in these talks.

Still in it
(In the AFC we are only looking at 6 loss teams as their are too many to realistically consider the 7 loss teams contenders at this point. If we re-evaluate the Playoff situations we will have a clearer picture of how things will shake out.)
Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Houston Texans. It’s hard to imagine the Super Bowl Champs not playing in the post season in 2009 but they will have to battle the Ravens and maybe the Dolphins and the surging Titans for the last spot as we don’t see the Jags holding on to it.

December football is really when every game matters the most and one single loss can mean the difference of going on to the postseason or going home! Keep an eye on the teams that get hot, as a good friend who covered the NFL for many years once told me…”It’s best to gel late in the NFL”!