Wildcards – Players that could change the AFC outlook!

By Steve O’Reilly

Every year there are story lines. Guys who could make or break the season for their respective team. We are going to focus on each Division and point out one player that could change the entire outlook of the playoff race. The ultimate goal of every team is to win their Division, if you do that, you are playoff bound for sure. So as we look at the 4 AFC Divisions, let’s point out some guys who’s return or level of play is vital too not only their team but the Divisional race as a whole. As I wrote in “Only as Strong as the Weakest Link“, if one piece of the puzzle is lacking than the entire team might suffer. Let’s take a spin around the AFC and see who are the real difference makers heading into 2010!

AFC East –
The big story are the additions. Guys like Santonio Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, CJ Spiller and Brandon Marshall all joined the East this year with hopes to be the piece to put their team over the top. This Division is stacked with talent and to be honest, the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots could all win 10 games and find themselves battling for supremacy! The key to this Division rests in the Knee of one man however and that man is Wes Welker. He is the piston that makes the Patriots Offense click. His presence makes Randy Moss that much more dangerous and gives Tom Brady a reliable outlet underneath in the Slot. In 2006, Welker posted 112 catches for 1175 Yards and 8 TD’s. In ’07, he stayed consistant with 111 catches for 1165 yards and 3 TD’s and then blew up in ’08, having the best year of his career. In that season he caught 123 Balls for 1348 yards and 4 TD’s.

With Welker in the lineup Defenses have major mismatch issues. Most Cornerbacks and all Safeties and Linebackers can’t cover him as he is too quick in and out of his breaks so when he’s in the slot he’s a nightmare! If you pay too much attention to him then Moss murders you in the Deep 3rd hence the quandary that Welker presents. During the 2010 Season however Wes suffered a serious Knee Injury and there are doubts at to whether or not he start the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list and consequently unable to suit up until Week 6. If Welker heals fast, trusts the Knee and gets back to his old ways than the Pats could throw a wrench in the entire AFC East race, if not…the Jets and Phins will battle it out!

AFC North –
This division is also getting better and while the talent level hasn’t increased as dramatically as the AFC East, it’s improved. Anquan Boldin drastically improves the Offense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will be able to move one of their current outside guys, probably Derrick Mason, to the slot and give Joe Flacco good options in the passing game. The Bengals have improved year after year and the culture in Cincinnati has changed to that of a confident winner. The biggest question mark in this Division and the true Wildcard has to be Ben Roethlisberger! The QB is facing major adversity for the first time in his career and a city that once dearly embraced him now has uneasy feelings over their Franchise guy. Already facing a 6 Game Suspension, the Steelers must initially move on with Byron Leftwich and will likely depend on the legs of Rashard Mendenhall. With a Rookie under Center and a gunshy QB at the helm, it could be ugly early for the Steelers. If Big Ben comes back and displays leadership and restores Steeler football than Pittsburgh could find themselves in the Playoff hunt at the end of the season. In games Ben has started, the Steelers are 60-26. The trade of Santonio Holmes will make big plays in the passing game even harder to produce. The Steelers will need Ben to put all the hoopla of his personal life aside and focus on football, if he can’t or comes out of the gate struggling than the Ravens and Bengals will find themselves in a two horse race for the Division.

AFC South -
This Division has been owned by the Colts but I strongly believe that there is a team that is ready to compete for the crown. The Tennessee Titans started off horribly in ’09, starting 0-6, but then turned it around and finished strong getting their record to 8-8. Riding that momentum will be key to compete, not taking to consideration the pending distraction that looms with All World RB Chris Johnson.

The Titans aren’t ready to compete with the Colts just yet and the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t ready either… however the Houston Texans are! They won 9 games last year and if it weren’t for a few unlucky breaks it could have been 10 or more. The Running Game needs to work on ball control, no more fumbles, and Matt Schaub needs to stay healthy but this Offense can put up points. The key here and the Wildcard in the Division is the Secondary, especially the Cornerback position in Houston. The Texans moved on from the Dunta Robinson experiment and now have a cast of players most outside of Houston have never heard of. According to the Texans website their Starting Corners are Glover Quin and Brice McCain….WHO? Exactly! To handle guys like Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, the boys in Houston are going to have to depend on Bernard Pollard and Jon Busing from the Safety position to help out with the inexperienced Corners. The good news for the Texans is that their Defense is improving year after year. With a magnitude of 1st Round Picks in front 7, like Mario Williams, Amobi Akoye, Brian Cushing and 2nd Round Pro Bowler DeMeco Ryans this Defense is talented. They finished the season Ranked 13th Defensively and combine that with the 4th Overall Offense and you can see that the Texans might be the team that finally pushes the Colts off their perch! The Texans Secondary will be the wildcard to how this division plays out!

AFC West -
The obvious choice in the AFC West is Jason Campbell. The former Washington Redskin is being claimed by some to bring the Raiders back to respectability. Seriously!! I can count over 7 NFL players, current and former, that all say to watch out for the Raiders this year! I’m still on the wait and see approach when dealing with anything to do with an Al Davis ballclub. In Kansas City, Chiefs did add an exceptional football player in Eric Berry but the Rookie Safety isn’t going to change the complexion of the race. I know many Denver fans want Tim Tebow to come and save them from the Dink and Dunk blues but that isn’t going to happen in 2010, he is a project and projects take time. The real Wildcard out in the West is Ryan Mathews. The Rookie Running Back from Fresno St. was hand picked by the Chargers in the 1st Round of the 2010 Draft. The Bolts traded up to the 12th spot to grab the man they wanted and they got him. The question now becomes is he going to do what the Chargers need him to do…be the primary ball carrier. All signs point to yes and this system is a great fit for Ryan. He has an experienced QB and an all around talented team to learn from. If the Chargers can establish the running game than everything becomes easier. They use play-action as a staple of their Offense, pounding the ball inside and out then going up top to one of their tall deep threats. If Ryan Mathews is the RB that San Diego thinks he is, than they win 13 games and walk away with the West, if not, they become one dimensional and all the rest of the Offense suffers. We feel pretty confident that Matthews will be just fine and the Bolts walk away with the AFC West!